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East Asia's economic outlook for the next three years generally better

  • Author:stevehu
  • Source:http://world.huanqiu.com/
  • Release on:2017-04-14
The World Bank released the "East Asia and the Pacific Semi-annual Report" on the 13th, said that in the domestic demand, the global economy and commodity prices gradually driven by the recovery, the East Asian developing countries in the next three years the economic outlook is still expected to generally better. With the continued growth of the economy and the increase in labor income, the poverty rate in the region is expected to continue.
The report is expected to continue to slow down the pace of China's economy as a result of the transition to consumption and services. The report predicts that China's economic growth in 2017 will be 6.5 percent and that in 2018 will be 6.3 percent. Other countries, including large economies in Southeast Asia, expect economic growth in 2017 to rise slightly from 5% in 2016 to 4.9% to 5.1%. Overall, growth in the developing countries of the East Asian and Pacific region in 2017 is forecast at 6.2% and 6.1% in 2018.
The report recommends that the Chinese government continue to work to reduce corporate debt, promote the restructuring of state-owned enterprises, strengthen the supervision of shadow banks to solve the rising passenger mortgage loans. In the implementation of measures to implement capacity reform at the same time, with the improvement of social transfer payments and labor policy as a supplement.
The driving force behind economic growth in East Asia remains strong domestic demand, including public investment and increasing private investment. With emerging markets and economic recovery in developing economies, this trend will also be supported by a gradual recovery in import demand. The slow recovery of commodity prices is beneficial to the country's commodity exporters, but it will not cause excessive damage to East Asian commodity-importing countries.
ASEAN large developing economies 2017 - 2018 growth rate is expected to accelerate slightly, for different reasons. The Philippine economy will benefit from infrastructure construction, increased public spending, private investment recovery, credit expansion and remittances, and is expected to accelerate to 6.9% in 2017 and 2018. The Malaysian economy is expected to grow by 4.3 percent in 2017 and 4.5 percent in 2018, thanks to increased government subsidies, increased infrastructure spending and rising exports.
However, global environmental and domestic vulnerabilities still pose a risk to regional prospects. In the face of a faster-than-expected rhythm in the US interest rate hike, protectionist sentiment in some developed economies, rapid expansion of credit in some East Asian countries and high debt levels, the report suggests that policy makers continue to focus on prudent macroeconomic management to ensure medium- The fiscal balance. The report also suggests that policymakers in most countries in East Asia should consider adjusting their loose monetary policy as inflation rates rise (albeit low) and capital flows are likely to fluctuate.
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